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The top three markets account for between 80% to 90% of global manufacturing capacity, depending on the technology. To date, manufacturing capacity in clean energy technologies is highly geographically concentrated. But relatively short lead-times for new manufacturing projects – from announcement to construction – mean that there is still scope for the project pipelines for 2030 to evolve significantly in the coming years. And it is important to note that for all five technologies, announced projects may not all go ahead, with most of them yet to receive final investment decisions. However, announcements for wind, heat pumps and electrolysers remain some way off the levels implied by the Net Zero Scenario. Battery manufacturing capacity would also meet the level the scenario envisaged for 2030. In that situation, global manufacturing capacity for solar PV would comfortably exceed the level needed in the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario for that technology. If all the projects announced to date were built, the anticipated output of manufacturing capacity for the five clean technologies would reach USD 790 billion a year by 2030. The report, The State of Clean Technology Manufacturing, examines announced manufacturing projects for solar PV, wind power, batteries, heat pumps and electrolysers to gauge how these plans could shape the clean energy landscape by the end of the decade. The new analysis is intended to inform deliberations at the G7 Leaders Summit in Hiroshima, Japan, this weekend.

Since late 2022, the estimated output by 2030 from existing and announced manufacturing capacity for solar PV has increased by 60%, for batteries by 25%, and for electrolysers by 20%, propelled by policy support and growing interest from investors, says the new special briefing from the IEA’s Energy Technology Perspectives series. Announcements of new manufacturing projects for several essential technologies for the clean energy transition – including solar PV, batteries and electrolysers – have accelerated in recent months, highlighting the growing global momentum behind the new energy economy, according to IEA analysis published today.